2012 National League East Breakdown

 

 

Heading into 2012, the National League East is the most transformed division in baseball. Stars have jumped ship, trades have been made and free agency acquisitions run rampant. That means we’re in for a huge year of competition, and a completely mixed up finishing order from last season.

 

 

The Marlins are the most improved team in this division, if not all of baseball. Offensively, you could make a strong case for them having the best lineup in the National League. They have four guys who can hit at least 20 home runs (Logan Morrison, Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton and Gaby Sanchez) and three guys who can steal at least 30 bases (Emilio Bonifacio, Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes).

In other words, they are incredibly balanced. Logan Morrison and Hanley Ramirez are both headed towards huge bounce-back years, which make this team all the more threatening. Then there’s the addition of Jose Reyes, deemed both unnecessary and ingenious all at once. Continuing the windfall of additions, we look at the rotation. They’ve added a huge veteran arm in Mark Buehrle and potentially one of the league’s top closers in Heath Bell. Also returning to the rotation in 2012 is ace Josh Johnson. With his deep injury history, Miami’s success banks on how healthy he can be. At full potential, J.J. is hands down one of the best pitchers in baseball. The fish need him.

With their huge upgrades it’s impossible to declare any other team to win the NL East.

Key Additions –> Jose Reyes (SS), Mark Buehrle (SP), Heath Bell (RP)

2012 “X-Factor” –> If Hanley Ramirez can bounce back from his dismal 2011 campaign, the Marlins will be in tip top shape.

 

 

 

My thoughts of Philly fans seeing this: “What?! The Philadelphia Phillies second?! Blasphemy!” Well, let’s look at that offense. When will Ryan Howard return? “Out indefinitely” isn’t very promising for their case, especially after his most recent setback with his Achilles injury. Will Chase Utley of old return? Can Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz slow the aging process?

This offense is a far cry from the 2007-2009 years. Hunter Pence has some serious upside, but their bats still can’t match up with the Nationals or Marlins. Or even the Braves for that matter. The only reason I have the Phillies ranked second is strictly due to their starting pitching. Hands down, Philadelphia has the best top three pitchers of any NL East team. However, I doubt Vance Worley can hold up his 2011 production, and Joe Blanton is still in the five spot. The Phillies arms are enough to pull them into the playoffs, but are the only reason they aren’t ranked fourth in this division. I believe Philly lacks what it takes to win the division outright in 2012.

Key Additions –> Jonathan Papelbon (RP), Jim Thome (1B/DH), Ty Wiggington (OF)

Key Losses –> Ryan Madson (RP), Raul Ibanez (OF)

2012 “X-Factor” –> Hunter Pence will need to shoulder most of the offensive load with Ryan Howard injured and Chase Utley declining fast.

 

 

The Nationals organization made some big moves the past two off-seasons, and it seems all eyes are on Washington heading into 2012. Their lineup is diverse and deep. Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Morse and Jayson Werth return as the core veterans. They’ve also added some depth to their pitching staff by signing budding star Gio Gonzalez and savvy veteran Edwin Jackson. Those two join a pitching core of Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman, which round out one of the staff combinations within the division, if not the entire league.

Then there’s that one kid, mega-prospect Bryce Harper. Widely deemed as “the chosen one” by the media, he spent 2011 destroying the minors, and his MLB debut is just around the corner. He’s an impact bat that could turn Washington’s lineup into the best in the East. There are a lot of really good things to say about this team. It will all ultimately boil down to whether or not they can put the pieces together and execute throughout the year. With the new expanded playoff field in place for 2012, I truly believe Washington will be in contention for one of the two wild card spots in the National League.

Key Additions –> Gio Gonzalez (SP), Edwin Jackson (SP), Brad Lidge (RP)

Key Losses –> Todd Coffey (RP), Ivan Rodriguez (C)

2012 “X-Factor” –> The addition of Gio Gonzalez to the Nats rotation has the potential of creating one of the better young duos (along with Stephen Strasburg) in the league. If he can build on his 2011 campaign, Washington will be in contention at season’s end.

 

 

It seems absurd to have the Atlanta Braves at the four spot, but they’re not as complete of a team as it seems. Offensively, it’s do-or-die for the Braves. Chipper Jones is a huge injury risk, Martin Prado and Dan Uggla have something to prove post-2011 and super prospect Jason Heyward needs to get things together. Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann are the lone bright spots, with Michael Bourne possibly joining the core if he can keep his average up.

Atlanta does luckily have a surplus of pitching depth. They without a doubt have some of the best pitching prospects in the game. Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy represent huge upside, but as new arms to the MLB do they have what it takes for quality 200-inning seasons?

Atlanta’s pitching is really good, but their young arms need more seasoning before they become a competitor. This year would best be used as a bridge to the next.

Key Additions –> Michael Bourn (OF), Jack Wilson (SS)

Key Losses –> Derek Lowe (SP), Alex Gonzalez (SS), Scott Linebrink (RP)

2012 “X-Factor” –> Jason Heyward has extreme upside, but it will all be a waste if he can’t stay on the field. Rumor has it; Heyward trained rigorously in the off-season. If he manages to stay healthy, he can add some serious pop to the Braves lineup.

 

 

The Mets continue to run in circles, and it doesn’t look like things will end in 2012. Offensively, they’ve lost more pieces than they’ve added. Ruben Tejeda is no Jose Reyes, and the outfield doesn’t have much to offer without Carlos Beltran. The David Wright-Ike Davis combo has potential, but with both currently shelved with injuries, the outlook on the Mets season is already bleak.

An even bigger mess is New York’s pitching. They lack anything that represents an ace, instead turning to mediocrity with Mike Pelfrey, Dillon Gee, R.A. Dickey and John Niese (the only arm with promise).

Johan Santana should return this season, but at what capacity? As another season passes, the Mets will once again fall into a losing record.

Key Additions –> Frank Francisco (RP), Jon Rauch (RP)

Key Losses –> Jose Reyes (SS)

2012 “X-Factor” –> whether Johan Santana can return to his previous ace form remains to be seen.  But if he’s able to get anywhere close it would help the Mets pitching staff enormously.

2012 American League East Breakdown

This offseason had a bit of everything — monster contracts, stars on the move, an incredible new stadium and Scott Boras again winning out in the end. Some teams overpaid, some underachieved, but most will have to wait and see. With Spring Training just underway, the buzz of a new season is growing daily as players, coaches and fans all eagerly await opening day. With this being my first column for the upcoming 2012 season, I thought what better way to start than with a divisional breakdown of the league. I’ll touch on key acquisitions, losses and an “x-factor” for each team in 2012. Starting with one division at a time, we’ll begin with the infamous American League East. (No bias at all).

Until late January, everyone was wondering about the state of the New York Yankees and their relative inactivity during the offseason. GM Brian Cashman followed through answering that speculation resoundingly. With the acquisition of highly touted (and potential future ace) Michael Pineda and the signing of Hiroki Kuroda, any questions regarding the stability of their starting rotation were out the window. This past week, Cashman finalized the trade many Yankee fans have been waiting for by sending A.J. Burnett to the Pittsburgh Pirates for two minor leaguers and (lots of) cash. The Yankees blatant disposal of Burnett also allowed the team to pursue and sign free agent Raul Ibanez. This move will fill the void at DH left by the departure of Jesus Montero (to Seattle). The Yankees are officially locked and loaded for the upcoming season and are the clear favorites to take the East.

Key Additions –> Michael Pineda (SP), Hiroki Kuroda (SP), Raul Ibanez (DH)

Key Losses –> Jesus Montero (C), Bartolo Colon (SP)

2012 “X-Factor” If Michael Pineda can improve on or at least match what he did last season in Seattle; he will be a dangerous addition to the Yankees pitching staff.

The Rays can obviously pitch. They boast arguably the best starting pitching in baseball, with David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson, and the top pitching prospect in baseball, Matt Moore. They also upgraded on offense, signing Carlos Pena after his one year stint with the Cubs, and traded for Luke Scott. Two things will be key for the Rays this season. One is Desmond Jennings, their young left fielder who will be entering his second season in the majors. After a semi-successful rookie year, the Rays need Jennings to evolve into the speedy leadoff hitter that they sorely lack. The other key is James Shields. After a breakout season where he made the all-star team and finished with career highs in WHIP, wins, strikeouts, and ERA, Shields needs to maintain this pace and not regress. The Rays still have their ever so consistent all-star third baseman, Evan Longoria, to build around on the offensive side of things as well. Led by baseball guru/manager Joe Maddon, Tampa can easily contend this season. I see them finishing second (as a wild card).

Key Additions —> Luke Scott (OF), Carlos Pena (1B), Fernando Rodney (RP)

Key Losses —> Johnny Damon (DH), Casey Kotchman (1B)

2012 “X-Factor” —> Desmond Jennings has the capability to take the Rays offense to a new level this season. If he manages to play up to his ability, he could easily steal 40 bases and score 100 runs for the Rays. That alone would catapult their offesnse and allow them to compete with the likes of New York and Boston.

The majority of offseason action in Bean Town took place in the front office. Theo Epstein darted to Chicago to take on a new challenge and an entirely different kind of monster (the Cubs). Former manager Terry Francona is heading to the broadcast booth, ironically enough, to take the place of the man who succeeds him in Boston, Bobby Valentine. The newly arranged front office addressed the loss of Jonathan Papelbon with a trade that brought closer Andrew Bailey from Oakland. Bailey will soften the blow of what was most likely the team’s biggest loss during the offseason. All in all, I believe Bobby Valentine will have a challenge on his hands trying to smooth out a clubhouse culture that was very much in disarray last season.  I believe a third place finish is on the horizon for the Sox.

Key Additions –> Andrew Bailey (RP), Mark Melancon (RP), Cody Ross (OF)

Key Losses –> Jonathan Papelbon (RP), J.D. Drew (OF), Tim Wakefield (SP)

2012 “X-Factor” –> Carl Crawford has all eyes set on him after bombing in his initial season with the Sox. After signing a monster ($142 mil.) deal last season, he has no choice but to redeem himself and get back to the All-Star form Boston thought they were paying for.

The Jays are a strange team for me; they’re almost caught in limbo in this division. For the past few years, they haven’t been good enough to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees, but weren’t bad enough to get high draft picks and stockpile young prospects. Jose Bautista, by far the league’s best home run hitter, is great, and I really believe that Ricky Romero will progress into a superstar pitcher this year. The Blue Jays are also counting on the development of their top prospect third baseman, Brett Lawrie. But after that, they’re average at best. They could probably contend in the AL Central, but in this heavyweight division, Toronto is completely overmatched. The Jays have the potential to finish third in the East, but will more than likely end up fourth.

Key Additions –> Sergio Santos (RP), Francisco Cordero (RP)

Key Losses —> Jon Rauch (RP), Frank Francisco (RP)

2012 “X-Factor” —> With quite the buzz built up around him, Brett Lawrie is expected to produce this season. The up and coming third baseman has the capability to put up five-category numbers. Another big bat to support Jose Bautista in the middle of the Blue Jay lineup could only help their overall cause.

Last but not least, comes the Baltimore Orioles. They’re not winning, and they know it. They traded their best starting pitcher, the mediocre Jeremy Guthrie, to the Rockies this offseason. That leaves an already abysmal pitching staff even worse. The offense isn’t great, either. Mark Reynolds is a solid power hitter, Nick Markakis has some upside, and Adam Jones is electric. But as of now, they are perennial bottom dwellers in the East. This is the best division in the American League, if not all of baseball, and it’ll be a battle of heavyweights all the way to the end.

Key Additions —> Wei-Yin Chen (SP), Matt Lindstrom (RP)

Key Losses —> Jeremy Guthrie (SP), Vladimir Guerrero (DH), Luke Scott (OF)

2012 “X-Factor” —> Adam Jones set career-highs in 2011 by hitting 25 homers, 83 RBI and 12 stolen bases. The all-star center fielder was named the club’s most valuable player in 2011 and is considered a key cornerstone in Baltimore. For the team to even remotely compete, they need Jones to improve even more.

Well Played, Minnesota. The Twins Get Their Star Back.

While everyone was prepared to write the Minnesota Twins off a month ago (including myself), an intelligently run front office may just prevail. In sports, timing is everything. And in this case, props must be given to Twins GM Bill Smith.  After orchestrating a well thought out plan for getting their superstar Joe Mauer back to full health, the Twins are seemingly back in the mix in the AL Central.

Where many front-office executives may have felt the pressure to rush their coveted franchise player back at less than 100%, Smith took the more intelligent approach. While Mauer was dealing with “bilateral leg weakness” (basically weak knees from the rigors of catching), he attempted to fight through the pain and start the season with the Twins.  It quickly became clear he was hobbled and not at full health. An ultimate decision was made by the Twins upper management, which may prove to have been genius in the long run.

Mauer was placed on the 60-day DL and given the golden opportunity to fully recover. Over those two months he went through endless rehab and longer than usual minor league stints. This ensured the Twins organization that he was able to catch multiple days in a row. Not to mention, they knew he would make more of an impact upon his return. With that said, the Minnesota Twins have already won 11 of their last 13 games without their All-Star catcher. Now due back on Friday, Mauer can only improve their current standing within the American League. Mauer was recently asked if he’s thought about how he’ll be perceived by Twins fans upon his return. He was quoted, saying “I think any of the negativity’s probably come out of frustration, and let me tell you right now, nobody’s been more frustrated than me over the last month.”I go out there and play hard every day. Obviously, the support of the fans means a lot to me, and I hope once I get back on the field, and we start playing, things will get back to the way they used to be.”

After a rough start to the season, one may ask, what is “the way they used to be“? Well, Mauer is clearly referring to the Twins past winning ways and consistent divisional contention. That is now achievable with more than half of the season remaining. All because of a well thought out approach by GM Bill Smith, Head Coach Ron Gardenhire and the rest of their staff. That, my fellow baseball fans, is how you manage a franchise player (and $184 million dollar investment).

We are all witnesses, to the first place Tribe.

In a sports town riddled with constant let downs, it seems that the 2011 Cleveland Indians have injected a new hope into the city. Coming out of the thick, post-LeBron era haze, the Tribe have been quite possibly the biggest early season surprise in the Major Leagues. Close to a third of the way through the season, the Indians have sole ownership of first place and are currently sporting an impressive 19-6 record at home. Or in the words of King James, The Indians have taken their talents to Progressive Field. With an abundance of solid young talent, stellar pitching, and the re-emergence of a healthy Grady Sizemore, the right pieces seem to be falling into place.

Although they may not maintain a .638 winning percentage the whole way through, the Tribe are much better than originally anticipated coming out of spring training. Also, given the troubles of the White Sox, and surprisingly the Twins, there’s a very good chance for division-title contention come September. According to MLB.com, the Indians’ +48 run differential and 117 runs allowed are best in the American League. These are good signs for continued success. Statistically, they currently sit in the top four in the AL in all three phases — offense, pitching, and defense. While very few were paying attention, the pitching staff quietly showed signs of emerging into a solid rotation during the second half of last season. You could very well see 2011 being a potential breakout season for closer Chris Perez and Justin Masterson, among others.

With the White Sox being the popular pick to win the division, many skeptics are waiting on a turnaround from their rocky start. The Detroit Tigers, led by reigning AL MVP Miguel Cabrera, will be in the divisional picture all season long as well. With Justin Verlander recently throwing his second no hitter, you can never overlook them to make a run for the pennant. History also shows you can never count out the Twins, but they have a handful of deeper issues to deal with (unhealthy stars, hole at shortstop, and a weakened bullpen). It probably won’t take 90 wins to capture the AL Central but the Indians are chopping away at that number, sitting at 30-17 on the season. Don’t look at it as a fluke, but rather a potential power shift.

All things considered, the division is wide open and there for the taking. Not since a 2007 playoff run, which is better remembered for the bug-swarmed opening series against the New York Yankees, have the Indians smelled any type of pennant race or post-season success. This may be the year that things change. The Indians could very well save the city that was emotionally and economically depleted by the departure of LeBron James and give home town fans something exciting to root for. Chief Wahoo has been patiently waiting.