Heading into 2012, the National League East is the most transformed division in baseball. Stars have jumped ship, trades have been made and free agency acquisitions run rampant. That means we’re in for a huge year of competition, and a completely mixed up finishing order from last season.
The Marlins are the most improved team in this division, if not all of baseball. Offensively, you could make a strong case for them having the best lineup in the National League. They have four guys who can hit at least 20 home runs (Logan Morrison, Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton and Gaby Sanchez) and three guys who can steal at least 30 bases (Emilio Bonifacio, Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes).
In other words, they are incredibly balanced. Logan Morrison and Hanley Ramirez are both headed towards huge bounce-back years, which make this team all the more threatening. Then there’s the addition of Jose Reyes, deemed both unnecessary and ingenious all at once. Continuing the windfall of additions, we look at the rotation. They’ve added a huge veteran arm in Mark Buehrle and potentially one of the league’s top closers in Heath Bell. Also returning to the rotation in 2012 is ace Josh Johnson. With his deep injury history, Miami’s success banks on how healthy he can be. At full potential, J.J. is hands down one of the best pitchers in baseball. The fish need him.
With their huge upgrades it’s impossible to declare any other team to win the NL East.
Key Additions –> Jose Reyes (SS), Mark Buehrle (SP), Heath Bell (RP)
2012 “X-Factor” –> If Hanley Ramirez can bounce back from his dismal 2011 campaign, the Marlins will be in tip top shape.
My thoughts of Philly fans seeing this: “What?! The Philadelphia Phillies second?! Blasphemy!” Well, let’s look at that offense. When will Ryan Howard return? “Out indefinitely” isn’t very promising for their case, especially after his most recent setback with his Achilles injury. Will Chase Utley of old return? Can Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz slow the aging process?
This offense is a far cry from the 2007-2009 years. Hunter Pence has some serious upside, but their bats still can’t match up with the Nationals or Marlins. Or even the Braves for that matter. The only reason I have the Phillies ranked second is strictly due to their starting pitching. Hands down, Philadelphia has the best top three pitchers of any NL East team. However, I doubt Vance Worley can hold up his 2011 production, and Joe Blanton is still in the five spot. The Phillies arms are enough to pull them into the playoffs, but are the only reason they aren’t ranked fourth in this division. I believe Philly lacks what it takes to win the division outright in 2012.
Key Additions –> Jonathan Papelbon (RP), Jim Thome (1B/DH), Ty Wiggington (OF)
Key Losses –> Ryan Madson (RP), Raul Ibanez (OF)
2012 “X-Factor” –> Hunter Pence will need to shoulder most of the offensive load with Ryan Howard injured and Chase Utley declining fast.
The Nationals organization made some big moves the past two off-seasons, and it seems all eyes are on Washington heading into 2012. Their lineup is diverse and deep. Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Morse and Jayson Werth return as the core veterans. They’ve also added some depth to their pitching staff by signing budding star Gio Gonzalez and savvy veteran Edwin Jackson. Those two join a pitching core of Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman, which round out one of the staff combinations within the division, if not the entire league.
Then there’s that one kid, mega-prospect Bryce Harper. Widely deemed as “the chosen one” by the media, he spent 2011 destroying the minors, and his MLB debut is just around the corner. He’s an impact bat that could turn Washington’s lineup into the best in the East. There are a lot of really good things to say about this team. It will all ultimately boil down to whether or not they can put the pieces together and execute throughout the year. With the new expanded playoff field in place for 2012, I truly believe Washington will be in contention for one of the two wild card spots in the National League.
Key Additions –> Gio Gonzalez (SP), Edwin Jackson (SP), Brad Lidge (RP)
Key Losses –> Todd Coffey (RP), Ivan Rodriguez (C)
2012 “X-Factor” –> The addition of Gio Gonzalez to the Nats rotation has the potential of creating one of the better young duos (along with Stephen Strasburg) in the league. If he can build on his 2011 campaign, Washington will be in contention at season’s end.
It seems absurd to have the Atlanta Braves at the four spot, but they’re not as complete of a team as it seems. Offensively, it’s do-or-die for the Braves. Chipper Jones is a huge injury risk, Martin Prado and Dan Uggla have something to prove post-2011 and super prospect Jason Heyward needs to get things together. Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann are the lone bright spots, with Michael Bourne possibly joining the core if he can keep his average up.
Atlanta does luckily have a surplus of pitching depth. They without a doubt have some of the best pitching prospects in the game. Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy represent huge upside, but as new arms to the MLB do they have what it takes for quality 200-inning seasons?
Atlanta’s pitching is really good, but their young arms need more seasoning before they become a competitor. This year would best be used as a bridge to the next.
Key Additions –> Michael Bourn (OF), Jack Wilson (SS)
Key Losses –> Derek Lowe (SP), Alex Gonzalez (SS), Scott Linebrink (RP)
2012 “X-Factor” –> Jason Heyward has extreme upside, but it will all be a waste if he can’t stay on the field. Rumor has it; Heyward trained rigorously in the off-season. If he manages to stay healthy, he can add some serious pop to the Braves lineup.
The Mets continue to run in circles, and it doesn’t look like things will end in 2012. Offensively, they’ve lost more pieces than they’ve added. Ruben Tejeda is no Jose Reyes, and the outfield doesn’t have much to offer without Carlos Beltran. The David Wright-Ike Davis combo has potential, but with both currently shelved with injuries, the outlook on the Mets season is already bleak.
An even bigger mess is New York’s pitching. They lack anything that represents an ace, instead turning to mediocrity with Mike Pelfrey, Dillon Gee, R.A. Dickey and John Niese (the only arm with promise).
Johan Santana should return this season, but at what capacity? As another season passes, the Mets will once again fall into a losing record.
Key Additions –> Frank Francisco (RP), Jon Rauch (RP)
Key Losses –> Jose Reyes (SS)
2012 “X-Factor” –> whether Johan Santana can return to his previous ace form remains to be seen. But if he’s able to get anywhere close it would help the Mets pitching staff enormously.
Just A Bit Outside 
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